Illinois has never lacked good basketball. Rivals.com compiles a yearly list of the best prospects out of high school, and last year 10 of the top 150 were from Illinois. That means Illinois was responsible for 6.7 percent of the nation’s top 150 basketball prospects. If that sounds low, keep in mind that Illinois accounts for just 4.2 percent of the U.S. population, as per the 2010 Census.
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| Junior forward Jackie Carmichael looks for a basket against Oakland University Saturday, Feb. 18 at Redbird Arena. (Photo by Katie Sowa / Staff Photographer) |
Relatively speaking, Illinois balls harder than most states. The talent to build a top-tier NCAA basketball program certainly exists in the state, but Illinois’ big-time programs have floundered in recent years.
Over the last five seasons, all the NCAA basketball programs in-state have combined for just four March Madness appearances. The University of Illinois is responsible for three of those, having made the big dance in 2007, 2009, and 2011. The fourth belongs to Southern Illinois, who made a surprising Sweet 16 run in 2007.
Something is wrong with college basketball in the Land of Lincoln. Shouldn’t a state rich in talent have more success at the collegiate level?
Once-powerful DePaul has been so bad in Big East play that their 2-10 conference record is already better than last season, when they were 1-17 in the conference. Northwestern infamously hasn’t made the tournament in school history, but they were knocking on the door in 2011. ISU, SIU, and Bradley have been plagued by inconsistency as the power in the Missouri Valley has shifted to Creighton, Wichita State, and Northern Iowa. The rest of the state’s teams—UIC, Loyola, Chicago State, WIU, and EIU—are little more than mediocre-at-best footnotes in the story of Illinois basketball.
The way 2012 is shaping up, the state would be overachieving if more than one program received a tournament bid. Barring divine intervention, there are only three teams in-state with a chance to get in: Illinois, Northwestern, and ISU. Without further ado, here’s my recap of each team’s season thus far and a forecast for their March Madness ambitions.
1. Illinois, 16-9 (5-7 Big Ten)
Stop me if you’ve read this line before; the Illini are on a rollercoaster ride of a season, winning big games against superior opponents while losing others to teams they should beat. Quality guard play, specifically from junior Brandon Paul, makes this team exciting to watch and allows them to compete with anyone on certain nights. The highlight of their year, thus far? Taking down No. 1 Ohio State in Champaign. Paul’s 43 points, the third most in a single game in Illini history, led the Illini to their greatest upset in recent memory.
A home loss to Northwestern a loss at Penn State have put the Illini’s tournament hopes in jeopardy. With six conference games remaining, the Illini likely will need to finish 4-2 to earn an at-large bid. If they don’t do that, hope is not lost. They’ve proven they can hang with any team in the nation, so running the table in the conference tournament isn’t out of the question. At this point, Illinois just needs to get in. If they do that, they could turn a few heads in March.
2. Northwestern, 15-9 (5-7 Big Ten)
Is this the year the Wildcats finally end their eternal tournament drought? Led by senior forward John Shurna (19.9 PPG), the ‘Cats have victories against No. 7 Michigan State and a road win at Illinois to hang their hats on. Like Illinois, the Wildcats will need to finish strongly to earn an at-large bid. A 3-3 finish against quality Big Ten opponents may be enough for them, and their reputation of being overachievers will help their chances with the selection committee.
The door is closing on the Wildcats. With Shurna set to graduate, it could take years to engineer a roster capable of taking them to the promised land, or even close to it. Look for them to play with a sense of urgency over these final weeks. If the ‘Cats get in, they lack the athleticism and depth to make a serious tournament run, but advancing to the second round in their first-ever tournament would still be a noteworthy achievement.
3. Illinois State, 16-10 (8-7 Missouri Valley)
ISU’s chance to make the NCAA tournament is an outside shot at best. Although they play in a mid-major conference without a national audience, the Redbirds have a wind of momentum at their backs. They struggled out of the gate in conference play, but since January 18 they’ve been a solid 5-3 in the Valley. Although they haven’t beaten the conference’s heavyweights, Wichita State and Creighton, they’ve shown they can play with them.
In all likelihood, the Redbirds need to win their conference tournament to earn a tourney bid. They played well against both Wichita and Creighton at home, but they struggled on the road. The likely result for the ‘Birds is a trip to the conference tourney’s semifinals and an NIT bid. The good news? Tim Jankovich’s team will return all 14 players next season, and a trip to the NIT would provide valuable postseason experience for a team whose bar will be set higher next season.